← Public toolsFORLEN DECISION MODEL / 01
More leads are not always the answer.
Map how inquiries become qualified opportunities, wins, served customers, and retained value—then see where the constraint moves next.
QUICK START
Use the model in four passes.
Start with the fictional example if you want to understand the logic first. Replace it with one recent month of your own numbers when the outputs make sense.
- 01Choose the structure
Pipeline for projects or transactions. Recurring for retainers, memberships, or SaaS.
- 02Enter one baseline
Keep every number in the same monthly period. Use observed figures where possible.
- 03Compare one change
Each scenario moves one lever and holds the rest still so the tradeoff stays visible.
- 04Investigate—do not obey
Treat the largest arithmetic lift as a question to verify, not an automatic recommendation.
Before entering your numbersQualified opportunity means an inquiry with a real problem, fit, and plausible ability to buy.Capacity means new customers you can serve without knowingly reducing quality.Go to the model
WORKED SITUATIONS
Learn the model through a recognizable problem.
These are fictional teaching cases—not benchmarks. Open one, inspect why the result changes, then replace it with your own operating numbers.
MODELED SIGNAL01
Conversion has more leverage than additional lead volume.
With capacity already close to full, buying 25% more opportunities produces little usable gain. Improving conversion reaches the same ceiling without increasing acquisition spend.
Largest arithmetic lift+$1,620contribution / month
OPERATING FLOW
Where does volume disappear—or collide with capacity?
Visible handoff loss is a clue, not proof of the constraint.
Largest visible handoff loss
CURRENT SYSTEM / BASELINE
Pipeline modelYour numbers before a tactic is chosen.
DECISION THRESHOLDS
How close is the system to changing state?
Thresholds expose boundaries the ranking alone cannot show.
ONE CHANGE AT A TIME
Which lever changes the economics?
Every scenario changes one assumption and holds the others still.
BaselineLargest arithmetic liftRanked by contribution after acquisition spend
DECISION TEST
Which lever is credible enough to test next?
Arithmetic upside and practical test readiness are deliberately kept separate.
Process readinessAssessment incompleteAssess all four conditions before treating this as a test plan.
0 / 4conditions support a bounded test
This readiness check organizes judgment. It does not estimate probability of success, implementation difficulty, or causal certainty.
SHOW THE WORK
Audit the calculation, not just the conclusion.
No hidden benchmark or model call is used.
DECISION BRIEFReady from current assumptions
CONSTRAINT SEQUENCE
A modeled path to investigate—not an implementation plan.
NEXT EVIDENCE PACK
What to pull before acting.
Small records, not a full analytics project.
What this model still cannot see
Correct or complete the operating baseline.
The model will not turn missing or implausible information into a result. Follow the input notes above, or reload a worked example.
READ THE MODEL CORRECTLY
A useful calculation still depends on useful inputs.
Contribution is not net profit.
It is modeled revenue × gross margin − acquisition spend. It excludes fixed overhead, taxes, cash timing, refunds, and delivery changes.
A lever is not a recommendation.
The comparison shows sensitivity under your assumptions. It does not prove why performance looks this way or whether a change is achievable.
Use one consistent period.
The default is monthly. Inquiries, qualification, revenue, spend, capacity, active customers, and churn must describe the same period.
Recurring revenue timing is simplified.
The recurring model prices the ending customer base at one full month. It does not prorate activation, cancellation, expansion, or collection timing.